Exploring The Forecasting Inflation in Kota Palu: An Application of the ARIMA Model

Inflation is an economic phenomenon that significantly impacts financial stability and the welfare of society. The movement inflation in Kota Palu challenging to explain using theories, as there are factors difficult incorporate into models, such COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2020 2022, which impacted transportation, housing, other services components. However, accurately predicting rates remains a complex challenge. objective this study forecast for year 2023. data used analysis Consumer Price Index (CPI) from January 2017 March 2023, with 74 observations. ARIMA model Autoregressive (AR) lags six nine was employed. results show forecasted CPI or April 2023 December predicted values closely approximate actual values. Therefore, can be considered accurate movements.